About WRF scheme modeling for the period 2016 Sep 17-18
Four ABL schemes have been tested: the local ABL schemes (with TKE closure) Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) based on our previous experience in simulating closed sea breeze cells and the Bougeault-Lacarrère (BouLac) , the nonlocal Yonsei University scheme (YSU) and the hybrid local–nonlocal Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM2) with non-local upward mixing and local downward mixing. MYJ ABL scheme can be coupled with the Eta-similarity surface layer scheme , while YSU and ACM2 schemes with MM5-similarity surface layer scheme. The BouLac ABL scheme can be coupled either with MM5 or Eta-similarity surface layer schemes. Here we choose MM5-similarity scheme for simulation with BouLac ABL scheme.
The synoptic situation for 17-18 September 2016 is favorable for extreme winds – the high pressure over studied area is replaced by warm frontpassing from west to east. The surface winds at the coastline are within 4-6 m/s with some windgusts around 8-10 m/s. At the end of the period a low pressure system is established over the region. The surface winds redirect from south, south-east in northern part of Bulgarian coastline and unstable windirection in Ahtopol itself.
Synoptic situation over Europe, 17 September 2016, 00UTC
Synoptic situation over Europe, 18 September 2016, 00UTC