Project management plan

(WP1) Creation of a specific database in an appropriate format for the purposes of the project and application of statistical analysis of the wind speed distribution in height including the use of the two-parameter Weibull distribution. Derivation of a “sample” profile for extreme winds deduction.

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  • Uniform treatment of the sodar raw data
  • Import the new data from reprocessing in a format suitable for working in the MatLab environment and create a database of acoustic sounding of the coastal ABL suitable for future project actions.
  • Preparation of statistical analysis for wind velocity distribution (histogram production) and applying of 2-parameter Weibull distribution at each height of measurement. Analyzing the change of wind speed probability distribution in height.
  • Determination of the 90th percentile of the Weibull distribution for all heights and output of a reference profile for extreme wind speeds deduction.

(WP2) Identification the situations with extreme winds and define their distribution by months and hours of the day in different years. Meteorological analysis and selection of certain periods with extreme winds to assess the performance of mesometeorological modelling.

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  • Comparison of the obtained “reference” extreme profile with each individual, real-measured wind speed profile from the entire research period at all heights (at each 10 meters height);
  • Tagging only of profiles with data availability at 70 meters (the purpose is to exclude “short profiles” from the analysis of the extreme events) and reaching a height determined by fulfilling a condition for higher values than these of the reference profile along the whole height (respective altitude).
  • Obtaining the extreme profiles distribution measured from the sodar by months and hours of the day through different years.
  • Selection of appropriate periods with sufficient duration of extreme events for the purposes of mesometeorological modeling (longer and sustainable periods will be on focus) accompanied by regional meteorological analysis (Southeastern Balkan Peninsula) through synoptic maps archive, aerological probes, and meteorological elements fields by operational and model data of the national and international meteorological services.

(WP3) Initialization of numerical non-hydrostatic meteorological model WRF and output of wind field stimulation data (velocity, direction and components of the wind vector). Selection and implementation of approximation to retrieve interpolated model data at levels close to those of the sodar.

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  • Configuration of the WRF model: selecting the parameterization of the physical processes that will be used for the numerical simulations in EP Ahtopol, adoption of several nested domains. 
  • Initialization of WRF model simulations for the selected extreme events periods with high temporal resolution (10 minutes) and an optimal number of vertical levels in the first 1000 meters above the surface.
  • Review of the model results and calculation of interpolated model data to multiple sub-level between the actual simulation heights by the linear approximation of the model data in order to get as close to the levels of sodar measurements.

(WP4) Assess the performance of mesometeorological modelling in a coastal zone under the extreme winds conditions for the selected periods, by correlation correlations (Piersen coefficient) between measurements and modeling data in extreme events. Summary analysis of averaged characteristics and their dispersion of coastal ABL in conditions of extreme winds – visualization of averaged data from all registered extreme profiles time series in EP Ahtopol.

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  • Obtaining correlation coefficients between five pairs of variables (model data / measurements) – wind direction and speed (WD, WS), and three wind vector components (W – vertical velocity, U – Eastern component, and V – north component) using the Piersen correlation coefficient set by:
    • time-series comparison at a certain height;
    • individual profiles comparison at a given time;
  • Obtaining averaged profiles and their dispersions of the wind field and the turbulence from the time series of all registered extreme profiles over the entire research period at the territory of EP Ahtopol.

(WP 5) Control and management of the implementation of project tasks. Creating a project web page, publishing the project information and results of its activities.

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  • Individual work packages activities interaction and coordination, deadlines implementation;
  • Supervise the implementation of the financial plan and take action for its change if is necessary;
  • Coordination and monitoring of the project stages report preparation;
  • Comprehensive results review and selection of the appropriate ones for presentation in scientific publications and conferences;
  • Stimulating the activity of the formed scientific team and searching for project results presenting opportunities at international conferences;
  • Project research results preparation for scientific publications;
  • To promote the objectives and tasks of the project on the Internet through the preparation of a webpage where, besides general information on the project, the achieved results of the set tasks to be announced.
  • Potential risk analysis that could embarrass the implementation of the assigned tasks in the project and take timely actions to minimize them.